U.S. Renewable Energy Capacity Poised to Overtake Natural Gas in Three Years

The landscape of the U.S. energy sector is undergoing a remarkable transformation. As the nation increasingly prioritizes sustainability and cleaner energy sources, renewable energy is rapidly gaining ground.

A recent review by the SUN DAY Campaign, based on mid-year data from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), reveals that renewable energy now constitutes 30% of the total U.S. electrical generating capacity.

This shift is primarily driven by the explosive growth of solar energy, which has emerged as the largest contributor to new generating capacity. As we approach the mid-2020s, solar energy is poised to surpass natural gas as the second-largest source of electrical generating capacity in the U.S., marking a significant milestone in the country’s transition towards a greener energy future.

This article delves into the current state of renewable energy in the U.S., highlights the impressive growth of solar power, and explores what lies ahead in the renewable energy landscape.

Solar Energy Dominance

June 2024 witnessed solar power contributing 97% of new generating capacity, further cementing its position as the largest source of new capacity for ten consecutive months.

During the first half of 2024, solar alone accounted for 77% of all new capacity, a remarkable increase from the previous year’s figures. Over the same period, wind energy added 12.6% of new capacity, maintaining its role as a key player in the renewable sector.

Surge in Solar Capacity

The growth in solar capacity has been dramatic. From June 2014 to June 2024, utility-scale solar capacity expanded from 9.25 GW to 116.80 GW. This increase has propelled Solar's share of the total installed U.S. generating capacity from 0.8% to 9.0%.

Wind energy also saw a significant rise, with its share doubling from 5.3% to 11.8%. In total, renewable energy sources have doubled their share of installed capacity from 16.3% to 30.0% over the past decade.

Future Projections

Looking ahead, FERC’s projections suggest that solar will continue to grow rapidly. Between July 2024 and June 2027, solar is expected to add 88,526 MW of new capacity, nearly four times the forecasted additions for wind.

By July 2027, solar is projected to account for 14.8% of the nation’s installed utility-scale generating capacity, surpassing coal and wind, and securing the second position behind natural gas.

Renewable Energy’s Rising Share

The combined capacity of solar and wind now makes up 20.7% of the nation’s total utility-scale generating capacity. When considering small-scale solar systems, which are not included in FERC’s data, this figure is expected to rise significantly.

Projections indicate that, within three years, total U.S. solar capacity, including both small-scale and utility-scale systems, could exceed 300 GW. Consequently, renewables could account for over 40% of the total installed capacity, surpassing natural gas, which is anticipated to hold around 37%.

The Road Ahead

The energy industry in the United States is about to undergo a dramatic change. The country's dedication to renewable energy sources is greater than ever, opening the door for a cleaner and more sustainable future, as solar energy is expected to overtake natural gas over the next several years.